By Mark Jenkins
Despite our recent chilly spell, this April was the warmest since I began keeping records in June of 1982.
This resumes the string of record-setting months since the beginning of 2017. Both January and February were also record warm months so we are off to the warmest first one-third of the year as well.
Meanwhile, the chill continued for the far western states north and west of San Francisco to Salt Lake City to Missoula Montana. That part of the country has had a cold and wet winter, which continues into spring. This has all but eradicated the seven-year drought in most of California. In fact, as of last week according to Drought.gov, only 4.2 percent of the nation is now affected by drought levels 1-4. This is exceedingly good news after years of extreme to exceptional drought, especially in the far West. Drought has developed and even worsened in south Georgia and much of the Florida peninsula, however. The West Mims wildfire in the Okefenokee has grown into a monster, burning nearly 130,000 acres as of this writing.
Even with our record-warm April, we also had our third wettest April on record. While much of the rain was gentle, some of it was accompanied by severe wind. The storms late in the evening of April 5 brought down trees in numerous parts of the county. Winds gusted to 52 mph here but were likely nearer hurricane force in spots. The current pattern lends itself to more rain and storminess for another week or so. It appears, however, that after the middle of May, higher pressure with more tranquil weather may take over. May is normally our driest month of the year, with a tad over three inches of rain.
Most of the county has already had one to two inches so far this month. The biggest influence on our rainfall patterns here, the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), is still expected to trend away from the cooler Pacific temperatures of the past eight months and go back to a weak or moderate El Nino by late summer. If this happens then we can expect a hotter and drier June transitioning to a wetter and cooler August. However, Mr. El Nino is not really behaving right now. The past 30 days have actually seen a decrease in the temperatures of the eastern equatorial Pacific. In reality, forecasts of El Ninos made in the spring are notoriously shaky. Our weather of late has been behaving more like La Nina, with flooding rains in the Missouri, Tennessee and Ohio valleys, drought just to our south, and our area in between. If this trend of Pacific cooling continues then we may be in store for a typically hot summer with average to below average rainfall.
It is expected by most of the long-range models, however, that El Nino will continue to gradually grow in the Pacific. Either way, I expect June to be our hottest and driest month, July more normal, and August wetter and a little cooler. All in all, it should be a much better summer than last year’s terrible dryness and heat.
Weather averages for April, 2017: Avg. low: 54. Avg. high: 76. Lowest: 38. Highest: 85. Mean: 65.0 (+4.2). Rainfall: 6.42” (+2.84”). 2017 total rainfall to April 30: 17.18” (-0.12”).
Mark Jenkins is Madison County’s cooperative weather observer.
(0) comments
Welcome to the discussion.
Log In
Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language.
PLEASE TURN OFF YOUR CAPS LOCK.
Don't Threaten. Threats of harming another person will not be tolerated.
Be Truthful. Don't knowingly lie about anyone or anything.
Be Nice. No racism, sexism or any sort of -ism that is degrading to another person.
Be Proactive. Use the 'Report' link on each comment to let us know of abusive posts.
Share with Us. We'd love to hear eyewitness accounts, the history behind an article.